A Fragile Balance in Iraq’s New Government

Iraq’s parliament has approved the government program and part of the Cabinet lineup of Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi. The approval of 14 ministers out of a proposed 23-member Cabinet is a welcome development, but it’s only the beginning of a long and arduous process to stabilize Iraq’s politics.

The power-sharing arrangement among various parliamentary blocs has resulted in a government that reflects the complex web of alliances and rivalries between Iran-backed Shiite parties, Sunni groups, Kurdish parties, and religious minorities. This delicate balance is crucial for navigating regional politics, particularly with regards to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.

The approved government program includes ambitious goals such as improving public services, addressing the electricity crisis, and supporting economic stability. However, these promises will remain hollow without concrete action, given Iraq’s long history of broken pledges and unfulfilled reforms. The inclusion of provisions related to restricting weapons to the state is a positive step, but its implementation will be fiercely contested by Iran-backed militias that have significant influence in Iraq.

The real challenge for al-Zaidi’s government lies not in policy-making, but in managing competing interests among various stakeholders. The US and Iran, with their own agendas and leverage over Iraqi politics, are unlikely to provide a stable environment for the new government. The recent war between the two countries has exacerbated Iraq’s economic woes, disrupting oil exports on which the country depends.

The Coordination Framework’s decision to postpone voting on ministries associated with armed factions is a sign of the ongoing influence of Iran-backed militias in Iraqi politics. These groups have been responsible for frequent attacks on US bases and diplomatic facilities, and their disarmament is crucial for stabilizing the country. However, as officials within the framework hinted at, Tehran’s reluctance to relinquish its leverage over these groups will make it difficult for al-Zaidi’s government to take decisive action.

Al-Zaidi’s appointment as prime minister is also noteworthy, given his lack of political background and experience. His emergence as a consensus candidate after weeks of internal debate among the Coordination Framework’s member parties reflects the ongoing quest for stability in Iraqi politics. Both the US and Iran have blessed his candidacy, reflecting their own interests in maintaining a stable partner in Baghdad.

As Iraq navigates this treacherous landscape, the international community must be cautious not to exacerbate the situation with its own actions. The congratulatory messages from US envoy Tom Barrack and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are welcome, but they should not mask the underlying tensions between these two powers. Instead of pushing for a bold new agenda aligned with “shared interests,” the international community should focus on supporting Iraq’s fragile democracy and providing it with necessary resources to build its capacity.

The fate of al-Zaidi’s government will be shaped by the complex interplay of regional and domestic forces. While the approval of 14 ministers is a positive step, it’s only the beginning of a long journey towards stability and reform in Iraq. The world must watch closely as this fragile balance unfolds, lest we forget the lessons of history and allow another cycle of instability to take hold in this critical region.