The Tariff Trap: How US Sanctions Are Backfiring on Bolsonaro’s Son

The Brazilian presidential elections are approaching, and a curious phenomenon has emerged. As Washington pressures Brasilia with tariffs and sanctions, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva appears to be gaining strength. The latest development is a fresh wave of 25 percent tariffs on various Brazilian goods, imposed by the Trump administration.

At first glance, these measures seem designed to weaken Lula’s chances at re-election. However, they are having an unintended consequence: bolstering Lula’s support among Brazilian voters. Brazilians are fed up with being seen as pawns in a larger game of great power politics. The Bolsonaro family’s cozy relationship with Washington has become synonymous with crony capitalism that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

When Trump’s tariffs squeeze Brazil’s economy, it reinforces this perception – and Lula is more than happy to capitalize on it. As an incumbent president, he has made sovereignty a central plank of his campaign, casting himself as a defender of Brazilian interests against foreign powers. This resonates with many Brazilians who feel their country has been treated unfairly by Washington in recent years.

The tariffs are also a stark reminder of the risks associated with doing business with Washington at any price. The Bolsonaros are beginning to realize that their family’s influence in Washington comes with a steep cost. Whether it’s the imposition of tariffs or the designation of Brazilian gangs as “terrorist” organizations, the consequences can be severe.

The implications for Brazil’s politics extend far beyond October’s elections. As Gustavo Blum, a Brazilian geopolitics analyst, notes, the country has long been caught up in a web of great power rivalries that often leaves it feeling like a mere pawn on the world stage. The fact that Washington’s tariffs are inadvertently strengthening Lula’s hand should serve as a wake-up call to Brasilia: when it comes to defending Brazil’s interests, homegrown policies and politicians are essential.

What this means for Lula’s chances at re-election is still far from clear. However, one thing is certain: the more Washington presses its advantage with tariffs and sanctions, the more likely it becomes that Brazilians will turn out in force to reject the Bolsonaro family’s brand of politics altogether. Flavio’s desperate attempts to delay these tariffs until after the election only highlight the limits of his influence – and the futility of relying on Washington’s goodwill.

As the campaign season heats up, Brazilians will be watching closely to see how their country navigates this diplomatic quagmire. They will have to choose between Lula’s vision for a more sovereign Brazil and the Bolsonaros’ promises of close ties with Washington. The choice is theirs – but one thing is certain: unless Brasilia starts thinking more critically about its relationships with foreign powers, the tariff trap that has ensnared Flavio and his family will only grow tighter.